Imagine the two most likely outcomes in 2004: a Bush victory, almost certainly accompanied by increased GOP majorities in both houses of Congress, and by a pickup of gubernatorial and legislative seats, leaving Republicans as the true governing party for the first time since the New Deal; and a Bush defeat, which would mean that the Democrat would have received more votes than the Republican in four straight presidential elections. In the latter case, even if the GOP hung onto majorities in Congress, moderate Republicans would suddenly be interested in working with a Democratic president, and bitter fights would emerge among Republicans and conservatives, rather than among liberals and Democrats.
Interesting that he assumes a Bush defeat in 2004 can only occur with the Democrat winning more votes. What makes 2004 different than 2000 in that sense?
I'm also amused by his assertion that should Bush lose, "moderate Republicans would suddenly be interested in working with a Democratic president" is portrayed as a bad, and a sure, thing. If I recall correctly, this didn't happen during Clinton's presidency. But should it indeed happen, and conservative moderates also find their spine, it's interesting to note that he predicts "bitter fights" between "Republicans and conservatives" (which group does he favor?). Perhaps what he is really worried about is that conservatives will vote Democratic.
Ultimately though his entire credulity-straining and selective-assumption-laden thesis is that electing a Democrat will be Bad for the CountryTM because the GOP is too fractious and bitter and too moderate and too willing to work in a bipartisan way with the President of the United States. We must therefore appease the GOP for it's petulant threats of disruption by granting them complete control. The lunatics must be placed in charge of the asylum. We must burn the village to save it.
Well, I agree with Kristol's opinion of the GOP, a party that has in my opinion placed more emphasis on party loyalty than any true concern for what policies, conservative or liberal, may be best for this country as a whole.